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Tuesday, March 28, 2017

DOLLAR UPDATE


The dollar is recovering a little from the Friday-Monday rout that carried it below the 200-day moving average. The 10-year yield is recovering, too, if modestly. It closed at 2.373% late Tuesday and gets 2.385% this morning. Oil is up and gold is down. US equities had losses yesterday but index futures point upward for the open today following up-days in most of Asia and Europe. We think we smell a whiff of recovery of favorable sentiment toward the Trump reflation trade. The bond has yet to get on board so this is probably little more than the usual Tuesday pullback, but you never know.



Dollar has a basis for a strong recovery, but not quite yet. Any gains are likely fleeting. The euro, for one, has good momentum and the shorts get out, although we should expect a stall at that 62% retracement level. As for sterling, it’s not in the soup yet. It may not go in the soup, universal forecasts of economic disaster notwithstanding. And dollar/yen, which shows the same relationship with the interest rate differentials as the euro/dollar, can halt its slide at any moment. Be careful.



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