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Thursday, April 27, 2017

FX, Bond and Commodity Traders Simply Do Not Believe Tax Reform Will Deliver The Promised 4-5% Growth.

We get some useful data, including durables, wholesale inventories and initial jobless claims, but attention will be on the ECB policy meeting The ECB is expected to sit on its hands and Mr. Draghi to deny any change is being planned. He will likely say economic growth is steadying but inflation is not at such a sustainable level that it warrants a policy change. We get the April flash CPI tomorrow but the big ECB economics re-boot in June is probably the first time we can reasonable hope for a shift in forward guidance. Besides, the ECB must wait until after the next round of French presidential elections. Hope runs high the voters reject the only woman in France with no sense of style.

We will all be watching the press conference today anyway because it’s a relief to watch a competent and charming guy take the stage after our inept boor. Still, Draghi will be discretion itself. That redirects attention back to the freak show in the US.

One of the most interesting developments in a long time is the disparate response of different markets to the tax reform proposal. Equities mostly liked it, although the US equity indices closed down on the day. Companies will be busily figuring out how to game the new system. After all, the true effective tax rate is already more like 20% once the green eyeshade boys get to work.

But the 10-year yield was flat, closing at 2.311% (and down from a higher high) from 2.327% the day before. We call that a yawn. Oil was floppy and gold actually rose. Commodities in general remain gloomy. This may mean that the monetary policy side, still somewhat in question, has more juice than the fiscal side. It also implies that FX, bond and commodity traders simply do not believe that tax reform will deliver the promised 4-5% growth. The US is a mature economy and can’t be expected to deliver emerging market/frontier market growth rates. The headline could read “Fed beats Trump.” The Fed does not see wild growth or the inflation wild growth would imply. And on that theme, yesterday the CME reported Fed funds futures show a 67.6% probability of a June hike—down from 71.3% the day before.

We knew the tax reform announcement was due on Wednesday and we knew most of the features, but the event was still reported as though it were shocking fresh news. Maybe because the press conference was a joint effort by TreasSec Mnuchin and Gary Cohn, National Economic Council director. Here are just some of the issues:

• The announcement was on a single sheet of paper. The US tax codes runs to tens of thousands of pages. It’s a travesty to call what we got a “plan.” Any idea that these few ideas can be converted, technically, into a plan anytime soon is ridiculous. And any idea that it can be passed, even with Congress in the same party as the president, is even sillier. Example: the Trump initiative removes the state and local tax deduction from the federal bill. The states with the highest taxes are New York , New Jersey and California, which did not vote for Trump. These are also the states with the biggest populations.

• Mnuchin made it clear that we will never, ever get Trunp’s tax returns and therefore whatever benefit he gets from the new tax regime—and it absolutely favors the rich—will be substantial. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the plan will cost $3-10 trillion in lost revenue over ten years.

• Mnuchin asserts the same tired old supply-side theory that tax cuts will be stimulative and new growth will make up for revenue lost. It has never worked before. The FT suggests that the Joint Committee on Taxation, whose judgment matters, will not accept the idea of “a big revenue fillip from higher growth.”

The WSJ has a dandy chart showing that the US would move from the French level of taxation to somewhere between Ireland and Germany.

We must admit that this is one Trumpian disruption that is welcome, sort of. The problem is not that taxes are too high. The problem is that the tax code is wildly unfair and riddled with loopholes for special interests, very few of whom are average Joe individuals. Unfortunately, we can expect the usual Trumpian carelessness about good management and it’s all too likely we end up with a worse mess and a more unfair one than we have now.

As a sign of mismanagement, consider the NAFTA debacle. Yesterday the White House was talking about pulling out of NAFTA altogether. This was not idle chatter—an executive order was drafted (by Trade Council chief Navarro and “strategist” Bannon). It was almost ready to go to the final stages. But important Plubs, including Arizona’s McCain, came out in force to protest that the consequences would be dire. Trump also spoke to Pena and Trudeau. And voila! Now NAFA will be renegotiated, not repudiated.



There is some possibility this was the intent all along—Wall, dairy, lumber—repudiation! No, just kidding, let’s renegotiate. As a diplomatic style, it stinks. Even as bargaining, it lacks good faith. Trump may think he is coming off as a strong man to be feared, but he’s feared because of incompetence and lakiness. Both the CAD and the peso responded as you would expect. The USD/CAD, on a strong uptrend until then, tanked from 1.3645 to 1.3526 in the two hours after the renegotiation news came out. The dollar/peso, reversed course abruptly, from 19.2304 to 18.9462 in the same two hours. The chart here is in futures format (easier to read at a glance).



Good grief! As everyone was worried about right after the election, Trump is careless and undisciplined about financial matters. These two currencies were already heavily influenced by the NAFTA talk. But what if Trump throws out some irresponsible tweets about the pound, the yen and the euro? We can honestly say that the long-standing factors making for a weaker dollar, chiefly the twin deficits but also disapproval over style and foreign policy, have a new addition—Trump himself.

And we thought Bush Two was a downer. In contrast to Trump, Bush Two looks positively statesmanlike. At least he had the training to avoid reckless talk about currencies and other matter beyond his ken.

Here’s the question of the day—at what point do markets start ignoring noise out of Washington as just that—noise? The press has something to do with it. The FT top headline today is “Trump decides not to withdraw from Nafta.” The top story in the WSJ is “Trump’s Tax Cuts Face Narrow Path Through Congress.” The NYT has “Trump proposes sharply cutting tax rates for individuals.” The Guardian’s top story is about ISIS but underneath, “Trump under fire over ‘huge tax cut for the rich.’” Spiegel Online (in English) has nothing about Trump or taxes or NAFTA on the first page. Maybe that’s the more sensible approach.


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ALERT: $AAPL Ahead of Earnings May 2 Get the Analysis, Charts and Options Setup

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players to consumers, small and mid-sized businesses, and education, enterprise, and government customers worldwide. The company also sells related software, services, accessories, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications has Earnings on 5/2/2017. The company’s stock is currently trading around $143.79 in a 52 week range of $89.47-$145.46. The stock has been shown on fire over the past year with shares up 52.41% over the past 12 months.  I think that the upside has topped out and AAPL will sell off on Earnings. To confirm this signal we will analyze the stocks historical movement record on earnings, the current expectations for movement being priced into the options market, the technical setup, and institutional order flow into the event.
First we will examine the stocks historical earnings performance record. We can see that over the past 8 quarters the stock has sold off 5 times on earnings day with an average move of 4.7%. This does not tell us that the stock is guaranteed to sell off this quarter but it does show us that there is a slight bearish bias in the performance of AAPL on earnings day. This means that as we work through the rest of our analysis will have a bearish bias.
With a sense of how the stock has moved on earnings day in the past we can calculate the expected movement for this quarter. To best isolate the expected movement in AAPL we will use the shortest dated options that still contain the catalyst event. In this case we will use the May 5th weekly expiry. To measure the market makers expected move we will need to calculate the price of the at the money straddle. We looked at the AAPL May 5th strike straddle in the May 5th weekly expiry and it is implying a whopping $5.50 move.
The straddle is marking around $5.50. This implies an expected move of around $5.50. This implies a move of around 3.9% by next Friday’s expiry. Since this is in line with the stocks historical movement record we know that there an opportunity to put on a good reward vs risk setup AAPL.
Upside target = $144 + $5.50 = $150.50
Downside Target = $144 – $5.50 = $138.50

With these targets in mind we can look at the chart in AAPL to see if trend agrees with the bearish bias in AAPL price action.


Here we can see that the stock is trading above the Ichimoku Cloud and is firmly in bullish territory, but having problems getting through the $145 level and I think it has topped out.
I think that AAPL will move, sell off on Earnings, but I want to make sure I am getting a favorable reward to risk setup.  I think the stock will move lower, but I am not sure how much

Potential trade: Selling 1 AAPL 5/12/2017 143-144 Call Spread for $.60 credit

Risk: $40 per 1 lot
Reward: $60 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $143.60
This kind of analysis can be used to find setups like this ahead of earnings and other catalyst events.

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ALERT: GOOGL Moves Higher On Earnings

Alphabet Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides online advertising services in the United States and rest of the world. The company offers performance and brand advertising services and has Earnings on 4/27/2017. The company’s stock is currently trading around $889.14 in a 52 week range of $672.66-$892.99. The stock has been shown on fire over the past year with shares up 23.30% over the past 12 months.  I think that the upside has more to come and GOOGL will pop hard on Earnings. To confirm this signal we will analyze the stocks historical movement record on earnings, the current expectations for movement being priced into the options market, the technical setup, and institutional order flow into the event.

First we will examine the stocks historical earnings performance record. We can see that over the past 8 quarters the stock has rallied 6 times on earnings day with an average move of 4.6%. This does not tell us that the stock is guaranteed to rally this quarter but it does show us that there is a slight bullish bias in the performance of GOOGL on earnings day. This means that as we work through the rest of our analysis will have a bullish bias.
With a sense of how the stock has moved on earnings day in the past we can calculate the expected movement for this quarter. To best isolate the expected movement in GOOGL we will use the shortest dated options that still contain the catalyst event. In this case we will use the April 28th weekly expiry. To measure the market makers expected move we will need to calculate the price of the at the money straddle. We looked at the GOOGL $890 strike straddle in the April 28th weekly expiry and it is implying a whopping $30 move.
The straddle is marking around $30.00. This implies an expected move of around $30.00. This implies a move of around 3.3% by Friday’s expiry. Since this is in line with the stocks historical movement record we know that there an opportunity to put on a good reward vs risk setup GOOGL.
Upside target = $889 + $30.00 = $929.00
Downside Target = $889 – $30.00 = $869.00
With these targets in mind we can look at the chart in GOOGL to see if trend agrees with the bullish bias in GOOGL price action.

Here we can see that the stock is trading above the Ichimoku Cloud and is firmly in bullish territory. One last indication also points to the possibility for a move to the upside in GOOGL.
I think that GOOGL will move higher on Earnings, but I want to make sure I am getting a favorable reward to risk setup.  I think the stock will move higher, but I am not sure how much
Potential trade: Selling 1 GOOGL Weekly 890-887.50 Put Spread for $1.25 credit
Risk: $125 per 1 lot
Reward: $125 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $888.50
This kind of analysis can be used to find setups like this ahead of earnings and other catalyst events.


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Wednesday, April 26, 2017

ALERTS: Microsoft ( MSFT ) is taking the fight to Google with its rumored new budget laptop running on cloud to deal with lesser global PC sales.

When you’re carrying out online stock trading involving tech stocks, it is important to watch for technological leaps. These companies could be launching new and innovative products or have them in the pipeline. These are factors that influence stock value.

Reports are emerging that Microsoft (MSFT) is planning to roll out a low cost laptop to rival Chromebook by Alphabet’s Google (GOOG) in May. This is certainly exciting news since it immediately raises anticipation levels as to how the Microsoft product would compare with the Chromebook. If it does exceed expectations, how will Google react to it? As a stock trader your question would be how it would end up affecting their respective stock values.
The Microsoft laptop, rumored to be called the CloudBook, is expected to perform better than the Surface tablet though it may not have all the features of the Surface Book. The laptop would not run on Windows 10 but on Windows 10 Cloud. It would be able to support Windows Store apps.
There is a reason for such simplicity and lack of the full suite of features. Like the Chromebook, Microsoft is targeting the CloudBook at schools and students. Unlike the Surface Book which is targeted at corporate circles, the CloudBook will be focused on the education sector. Google has also been making its Chromebook better by enabling Android apps to be run. On the hardware side Google has also launched detachable and convertible versions of its Chromebook.
This move by Microsoft is at quite the right time, since the PC market is really struggling. The first quarter of this year only saw a slender uptick, merely 0.6%, in global shipments of desktops, workstations and notebooks at 60.3 million units. This is actually the only time since 2012 that traditional PC shipments rose in Q1.
In the US, PC shipments have been hit harder, with a slight decline from last year. The primary slump in sales was recorded in the notebook PC category. The business PC market is strong though, and the growth in shipments of Google Chromebook is responsible for this. Q1 PC shipments stood at 13.3 million units in Q1.
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The New TechnologyThat Make Will Drive A Massive Wave of Growth

Automotive Industry  


The VPU’s $2 trillion automotive boom. 
By and large, humans aren’t good drivers. Every year, more than 2.2 million Americans get injured in a car crash. 32,000 die. That’s every single year.  
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, estimates that these accidents also cost almost $1 trillion.  
Imagine if we could solve this. Fortunately, we may not have to imagine much longer.  

According to Google, those figures will soon be slashed by 90%. And it all comes back to the VPU.  














Because VPUs grant cars the gift of sight.


Here’s a way to understand this. With Neural Imprinting, a VPU helps “imprint” a virtual world in a human brain. With cars, VPUs work in the opposite way. 
They help imprint a real world, in a virtual brain. If you have bought a new car recently, chances are it is equipped with hundreds of sensors, as well as front and back cameras. And for more and more of these cars, the information being captured and recorded from these devices is being fed into the virtual brain of that automobile. 
It’s being fed into a VPU. The VPU is processing this real world information to create a virtual 3D map of the car’s surroundings. This way, in real time, it can identify objects on actual roads. It can detect whether the roads are icy or if rain has made them dangerously slick.  
It’s calculating the speed and distances of the cars around you. This is all being done so the car itself can make decisions about when to brake, swerve, or keep moving. This VPU can even understand the differences between various vehicles – like a passenger car, an ambulance, or a police cruiser – so it can predict driver behavior. 
That means cars are now becoming much better drivers than people ever could be. And the impact this will have could be stunning. Experts are estimating that once VPU-enhanced cars become the norm, every single year... It will prevent about 30,000 deaths.Avoid almost 2 million injuries.And save Americans a collective $900 billion. 
These cars are not a phenomenon of the future. They’re already here. 


And the next step in the evolution of this VPU technology is starting to make waves as well. I’m talking about driverless cars. Chances are, you have been hearing a great deal about these fully autonomous vehicles on the news lately.  
And that’s because in the coming years you will see a lot of them on the road.  
For instance, Google’s self-driving prototypes rely on VPU technology. And they have already traveled more than 1 million miles… the equivalent of 75 years of human driving experience. Plus, the ride sharing service Uber is beginning to explore how they can transition to an all driverless fleet. 
A Columbia University study showed that with just 9,000 self-driving cars, Uber could replace every taxi in New York. Passengers would wait an average of 36 seconds for a ride that costs about $0.50 per mile. Mercedes has already developed a self-driving concept car, the F 015.  
Using your smartphone, your car will be able to pick you up and take you to your destination, allowing you to enjoy a movie or book while you relax in comfort. Or, if you prefer to be behind the wheel, you can take control knowing that the VPU in the car’s “virtual brain” will be working to ensure your trip is safe, as it constantly monitors your surroundings to predict and avoid any upcoming hazards. 
Audi made headlines when its autonomous car drove itself 550 miles to CES in Las Vegas. BMW is developing a feature called Remote Valet Parking assist, which drops you off at your door then parks itself in your garage or on the street. And in October, Tesla released the beta version of an updated Model S car that literally drives and parks itself.  
All of these car makers – Audi, BMW, and Tesla – rely on a VPU to act as the brains 
of their autonomous features... And each of them have a long-standing relationship  
with the one company that controls this 7,300 strong patent pipeline.
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Tuesday, April 25, 2017

RH – Restoration Hardware Holdings – Stocks Trade Idea

Trade Ideas technology tells us that stocks with high short floats that trade above their respective 52 week highs continue to perform well for days after the initial 52 week breakout. Right now, RH is resting and consolidating under the 52 week high with a short float of 65%. The position in RH will be considered live above 48.91 as the Trade of the Week.

The suggested stop for this trade is 44.25. The suggested target is nothing more than higher prices as the short sellers who were too stubborn to cover before 48.91 will drive the price higher until the pain is no longer forcing them to buy. Your job is to manage risk and/or sell along the way of new 52 week highs as they develop.


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Amazon (AMZN) How to potentially profit 700% on Earnings

Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions in North America and internationally. It operates through the North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS) segments and has Earnings on 4.27.2017. The company’s stock is currently trading around $902.60 in a 52 week range of $599.20-$923.72. The stock has been shown on fire over the past year with shares up 44% over the past 12 months.  I think that the upside has more to come and AMZN will pop hard on Earnings. To confirm this signal we will analyze the stocks historical movement record on earnings, the current expectations for movement being priced into the options market, the technical setup, and institutional order flow into the event.
First we will examine the stocks historical earnings performance record. We can see that over the past 8 quarters the stock has rallied 5 times on earnings day with an average move of 7.1%. This does not tell us that the stock is guaranteed to rally this quarter but it does show us that there is a slight bullish bias in the performance of AMZN on earnings day. This means that as we work through the rest of our analysis will have a bullish bias.
With a sense of how the stock has moved on earnings day in the past we can calculate the expected movement for this quarter. To best isolate the expected movement in AMZN we will use the shortest dated options that still contain the catalyst event. In this case we will use the April 28th weekly expiry. To measure the market makers expected move we will need to calculate the price of the at the money straddle. We looked at the AMZN $902.50 strike straddle in the April 28th weekly expiry and it is implying a whopping $40 move.
The straddle is marking around $40.00. This implies an expected move of around $40.00. This implies a move of around 4.4% by Friday’s expiry. Since this is in line with the stocks historical movement record we know that there an opportunity to put on a good reward vs risk setup in AMZN ahead of the event With this in mind we can use the expected move to calculate targets for AMZN.
Upside target = $902.60 + $40.00 = $942.60
Downside Target = $902.60 – $40.00 = $802.60
With these targets in mind we can look at the chart in AMZN to see if trend agrees with the bullish bias in AMZN price action.

Here we can see that the stock is trading above the Ichimoku Cloud and is firmly in bullish territory. One last indication also points to the possibility for a move to the upside in AMZN.
I think that AMZN will move higher on Earnings, but I want to make sure I am getting a favorable reward to risk setup.  I think the stock will move higher, but NOT too much
Potential trade: Buying the AMZN April 21st 920-940-960 Call Butterfly for $2.50
Risk: $250 per 1 lot
Reward: $1750 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $922.50 and $957.50


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The euro move on the French election news is a runaway gap different from common gaps filled.

The dollar took a big hit as the French election resulted in the lower risk outcome, with Macron leading, 24% to 21%. Before the FX market opened Monday, LePen was ahead of Macron but both were the clear front-runners, so the euro was always going to open on a giant gap. Sure enough, the euro opened up at 1.0879 from 1.0725 at the Friday close for a gap of 154 points and proceeded to a high of 1.0933 before profit-taking set in and the inevitable dip to 1.0818.

A May 7 runoff between Macron and LePen was always the most likely outcome  so the degree of relief is a measure of just how fearsome any other outcome would have been. The CAC jumped 4.5%, the French-German 10-year spread contracted from 64 points to 42 points, and gold put in a spike low. Relief was widespread -- the Euro Stoxx 600 rose 1.97%. Dollar/yen rose 150 points on a gap to 110.58 before the usual retreat. Oddly, even US equity index futures are higher.



Oil may be recovering from a hard fall on Friday--in defiance of forecasts for $60. It’s up about 50¢ so far today. WTI closed down at $49.62 and Brent, $51.96. The WSJ reports both are down over $4 or 7% in the week, the biggest drop since March 10. The trigger was Wednesday’s report of a giant rise in gasoline stocks, plus on-going evidence that the shale producers just won’t quit. Besides, OPEC is being coy about the extension of the output cut, something the FT picks as a key driver (“confidence wavers”). And global stockpiles are still over the 5-year average.

Not making the front page amid the French hoop-la was the Fitch rating agency decision to downgrade Italy to BBB from BBB+.

• In the UK, Rightmove reported its house price index up 1.1% m/m in April and 2.2% y/y, not a bad number in its own right but the slowest in four years. UK housing data is hard to interpret because of chronic shortages.

• In Germany, the IFO business climate index rose to112.9 from 112.4. “Current conditions” rose to 121.1 from 119.5 and “expectations” fell back a little to 105.2 from 105.7.

• In Greece, the 10-year yield went to the lowest since 2014 yesterday after the news last week thart the government more than met the primary budget surplus target at 4.2%, confirmed yesterday by the European Commission. The FT reports “The fiscal outperformance, coupled with market relief at France’s first round election result, has driven the 10-year bond yield down 16 basis points lower to 6.2 per cent yesterday – its lowest level since November 2014.” The EC says the 4.2% number was a one-time gain but Greece is still on track for a 1.7% surplus this year and 3.5% in 2018. “Bailout monitors from the EU and IMF have returned to Athens to prepare the groundwork that will allow them to release around €6bn to the Greek economy before a summer repayments crunch.”



Euro/Usd Outlook: 

The euro gap and spike to 1.0933 exceeded the immediately preceding high from March and took it to the highest level since last November. You can see the entire move on this chart—it’s off on the left and started at the Aug 18 high at 1.1366. As noted below, this is a runaway gap and normally we do not expect it to be filled like a common, garden-variety gap—but we still have two weeks before the final vote, so don’t count on it. 

The Reuters 10-year yield index closed at 2.238% from 2.241% the day before and is quoted at 2.302% yesterday on the overall global drop in risk aversion.

The Bund yield is quoted at 0.342% yesterday from 0.233% Friday morning and 0.178% last Wednesday.

Market Insights:

The euro move on the French election news is a runaway gap, differentiating it from a common gap. Common gaps get filled. Breakaway gaps do not because they are a trend continuation move.

Breakaway gaps are based on hard news that promotes the existing trend and they always result in in a profit-taking pullback, an excellent opportunity to buy on the dip (and possibly the origin of that idea). Things are a little more complicated this time because the French election is in two-parts. We can easily see the market pull back repeatedly over the next two weeks as new polls come out. Ironically, the CFTC Commitments of Traders report on Friday had specs’ net euro shorts at the highest since March.

Everyone notes that the two winners in the First round of the French election are non-Establishment, meaning not belonging to the existing mainstream political parties. This is not strictly true. LePen’s party has been around so long it needs to be considered “established” if not Establishment. Macron’s policy stance is thoroughly conventional and not all that different from Fillon’s. Fillon has now said he will back Macron, implying his bloc of votes will go along and deliver a resounding Macron victory. We don’t know where the far-left Melenchon voters go next. Weirdly, they could go to far-right LePen in an overall anti-Establishment move.

Political analysts are breathing a sigh of relief that Brexit and Trump were not the death of polls, after all. Some suggest that a multi-party system is better than the two-party system on the grounds that voters become accustomed to having a populist party in the mix. We doubt it. Multi-party systems have resulted in unstable coalitions and in some instance, months and months with no leadership at all.

In the US, Trump is supposed to roll out a tax plan and possibly a new health care plan as well this week, with critics saying there has not been sufficient time and staffing to deliver true plans and we are likely to get nothing more than rhetorical bluster and self-congratulation. Here’s the problem: the government runs out of spending authority on Friday, which will be Trumps’ 99th day in office. We probably won’t get a government shut-down but only a short-term extension in the form of a “continuing resolution” that does no more than kick the can down the road. Trump insists the budget contain funding for a border wall (that he said Mexico will pay for) while the border tax is not among the tax reform proposals, a broken promise in spades.

The Treasury is already gearing up for a loss of wiggle room. It must pay some obligations before others. Remember that stupid billion-dollar coin that supposedly the president can issue and borrow against? This was a loophole dreamed up during the Obama years. Obama was too dignified and conventional ever to do such a thing, but Trump is neither. And on Saturday, the press holds its annual White House Correspondents Dinner. The host and various speakers take turns ridiculing the president and any other easy target at these events. Obama himself ridiculed Trump at one of them. It’s a glorious opportunity to make fun of Trump but Trump has already said he is chickening out and will not attend.

Talk by Congress and the White House will likely override hard data this week, which is mostly about the housing market. We are worried about the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast due on Thursday for Q1 GDP. Last week it was a lousy 0.5%. The New York Fed, meanwhile, gets 2.7% for Q1. Granted, discrepancies between forecasts is common, but this one is a doozy. If the Atlanta Fed is correct, the US economy is far weaker than we thought. If the NY Fed is right, the US economy is far stronger than we thought and providing a strong push to the Fed for the June rate hike.

So which is it? The IMF is optimistic about a global recovery that will deliver 3.5% this year. Maybe the US will deliver 1-1.5% in Q1 but a big acceleration in Q2. The real problem is that inflation is fading back (in both the US and Europe), implying that the Trump reflation trade, while not a dead duck, will be much delayed. See the chart from the FT.


Meanwhile, N. Korea said it is prepared to strike aircraft carrier Carl Vinson, finally turned around and headed for the Sea of Japan. The NYT reports Chinese Pres Xi telephoned Trump yesterday morning to urge him not to respond in kind to a nuclear test by N. Korea, which may still be pending despite N. Korea not acting on April 15 as expected.

For some reason, the major news outlets failed to pick up a CBS report on a series of N. Korean statements on Saturday that it will respond with nuclear war if it is attacked. It’s not clear that the carrier nearing the Korean cost constitutes an “attack.”

N. Korea said, among other things, Trump administration officials are “spouting a load of rubbish” and “seeking to bring nuclear aircraft carrier strike groups one after another to the waters off the Korean Peninsula.” CBS reports “The recent escalation in tension will be front in center in Washington on Monday. Diplomatic sources tell CBS News that U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley will escort Security Council members to Washington for a series of meetings with members of Congress before heading to the White House for a photo-op and lunch with President Trump. The high-profile visit will give U.N. diplomats an unusually high level of access to the president.”

Oh, dear. We can say, again, that we don’t know how big a financial market effect these matters have. But confidence in the US economy and current stewardship has to be low and falling—although we have yet to see foreign fund managers run away from US auctions.

How to potentially profit 700% Gains in Amazon (AMZN) on Earnings




RH – Restoration Hardware Holdings – Stocks Trade Idea





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Saturday, April 22, 2017

Here’s the forecast: gloom over the demise of the Trump reflation trade gets a grip. Yields continue to drop.

The dollar ended the day of Thursday  higher off a double bottom and better than Tuesday, for a variety of reasons, including no new geopolitical tensions, TreasSec Mnuchin suggesting a tax reform plan will be coming “very soon,” and Fed Gov Kaplan coming out for two more hikes this year as well as starting to shrink the balance sheet as early as the end of this year. And oh, yes, those holding long euro positions pared back a bit, affecting the Swiss franc and European crosses.

US data was not particularly impressive, although continuing unemployment claims hit a 17-year low and leading indicators rose 0.4% when 0.2% was forecast. On the not-so-hot side was the Philly Fed business conditions index at 22 when 25 was expected and from 32.8 the month before.



Given the condition of the world today, including the threat of war at the highest in years and the possibility of Frexit, it’s surprising yields are flat, oil is down and most of all, gold is lower. Even the French German yield spread has moderated from 80 bp back to 62.6 bp. The dollar is higher against the yen for the third day. VIX is 14.04, near the middle of the recent range. It was a low of 10.90, on April 5 and a high of 16.28, on April 17. Market News notes “VIX has remained in sub-20, risk-friendly territory. A sustained break below the 200-day moving average, at 13.05 currently, would suggest rising risk appetite.”

All this connotes markets are hopeful (or complacent) that the status quo is not really at risk.

• In the UK, the BRC reported retail sales ex-petrol down 1.5%, far more than expected, although Feb was revised upward. For Q1, it’s the biggest quarterly drop in 7 years and points to GDP slipping down to 0.3-0.4%. Sterling took a hit on the news from 1.2831 to 1.2770, kissing distance of the last low from Wednesday.

• In Europe, France got a surprising bump in the April PMI to a 6-year high of 57.4 and surpassing Germany for the first time since 2012, according to Bloomberg. Germany got manufacturing at 58.2 from 58.3 and services at 54.7 from 55.6 for a composite down to 56.2 from 57.1.

       For the eurozone as a whole, Markit reports the flash PMI for April up to 56.7 from 56.4 in     March when no change was expected, with some evidence of wage pressure (a big deal as the driver of “secondary” inflation). Manufacturing rose to 56.8 from 56.2 in March, the highest in six years, while services rose to 56.2 from 56. 


Bloomberg says “The euro-area recovery is gathering pace despite a looming election in France, which could result in a president who is openly hostile to the single currency. The economic resilience is slowly pushing the European Central Bank toward a discussion about an exit from its unprecedented stimulus, which it has pledged to keep in place until at least the end of this year.” It looks like Bloomberg is egging the market on to a reprise of the ECB taper story.

Reuters reports Greece is meeting budget targets with a “primary budget surplus” of 3.9% in 2016 or about 4% of GDP. Really?

EURO/USD OUTLOOK:

The euro fell from 1.0765 at the high to 1.0705 by the US close, just enough to signal paring of long positions ahead of the Sunday election in France but not enough to set your hair on fire. See the 240-minute chart. We get red support today around 1.0637. The lowest low in this timeframe is 1.0568 from April 10. On the upside, if traders persist in feeling optimistic, we could see a test of the highs at the 62% retracement level, 1.0776.



We say this chart suggests a continuation move to the last high and beyond. But all that means is that big traders are not all that worried about the wrong set of French candidates coming out on top on Sunday. Yeah, well, they didn’t see Brexit coming, either, and Brexit caused sterling to crash 1880 points in two days. To go long or stay long euros under these circumstances is to be an optimist. To go short is to bet on a long shot--plain old-fashioned gambling.

The Main Event The Reuters 10-year yield index closed at 2.241% on an opening gap after 2.202% at the close the day before. It’s quoted at 2.241% from 2.224% yesterday morning, almost unchanged.

The Bund yield is quoted at 0.233% this morning from 0.201% yesterday and 0.178% the day before.
MARKET INSIGHTS/ANALYSIS: 

The currency to watch from now until Monday morning is the euro. Campaigning was suspended in France because of a public shooting and would end anyway at midnight tonight, according to Bloomberg, which also reports Macron and Le Pen lead, as expected, but with Commie Melenchon and oldtimey Republican Fillon trailing, if closing the gap.



If the wrong set of French presidential candidates wins the Sunday round, we need to expect the euro to tumble through support. As noted above, we can already see some limited paring back of long euro positions but not enough to set your hair on fire. It is likely to develop further today and then we have to ask whether short-covering on a Macron/LePen win will not deliver a spike late Sunday or Monday. The latest polls show these two the likely winners for the May 7 second round run-off.

But hardly anyone saw Brexit or Trump coming so complacency is not really called for. And yet yields are flat and gold is falling. The CAC equity index is higher and the French-German yield spread has moderated from 80 bp back to 62.6 bp this morning. VIX is on the low side of the range.

The dollar may be the temporary beneficiary of European worries, but it is beset by the enduring effect of bad data and the stink of a failed presidency. In the now customary effort to distract attention from real issues crying out for a coherent plan, Trump is again promising a health care bill, perhaps as early as next week. Nobody believes he has a plan. This is to distract attention from the unhappy fact that Congress needs to pass a budget continuation in the next week or we get another government shutdown on Friday. The budget director is a Trump ideologue who wants to include funding the Mexican wall, among other things, that will never pass.

Next Friday is the 100th day of the presidency, an arbitrary benchmark that nonetheless carries weight in the form of a judgment on whether the president can get things done. This one can’t. The Muslim travel ban is mired in the court system. This week the gung-ho Immigration agency deported a kid with protected status under the Dream order and that has gone to the court, too (and with delicious irony, the same judge Trump dissed during the campaign who made him cough up millions over the Trump University fraud). Trump also decried Canadian dairy in a trade rant stuffed full of non-facts. The WSJ has a story on how “Buy American” is unrealistic.

Trump charged Iran will not hewing to “the spirit” of the nuclear freeze, despite the inspectors affirming Iran is in compliance (as it does every 90 days). He says it’s one of the worst deals ever. Nobody believes he has read the deal or understands the history and context, so this is another lie. And it comes as a deliberate attempt to distract from the absence of a strategy in North Korea.

And the financial markets are not blind to Trump’s failures. He sent TreasSec Mnuchin out to say tax reform can be passed by the end of the year, another effort to distract attention from policy issues that are genuinely urgent, like the budget. But it didn’t work this time. The 10-year yield this morning is almost unchanged from the close yesterday and the close the day before.

Here’s the forecast: gloom over the demise of the Trump reflation trade gets a grip. Yields continue to drop. Market News notes that the fixed income consensus is shifting toward stimulus not arriving until later this year, despite Mnuchin saying tax reform is “pretty close.” The low yield on Tuesday was 2.166%, which was the lowest since Nov 14. Traders are eying old lows from Nov 17 at 2.187% and Nov 15 at 2.184%. “Yields sliced through these old lows earlier this week” and can get back there in a minute.

The post-election surge is a dead duck. We saw highs at 2.639% on Dec. 15, 2016, which was the highest since the Sept. 19, 2014 peak near 2.655%. To be fair, it was the Fed outlook as much or more than Trump reflation driving this move, but if the move is dead, we say it’s Trump that killed it. “For bond bears to feel more confident in their view, 10-year U.S. yields must vault 2.43%. The 100-day moving average comes in at 2.428% and is near the 55-day moving average, currently at 2.412%.”

Analysts see a recovery in yields during the second half of the year, but in the meanwhile, the dollar is losing its key support. 

In Europe, the polls will be right and Macron and LePen will win the top two spots for the May 7 runoff. Macron will win, not least because LePen is female and a racist. There is a chance the two winners will be Fillon and LePen, in which case Fillon wins. Either way, the euro comes roaring back from a short-lived slump and soars back to the March high of 1.0905 on a relief rally. When in doubt, sell dollars.


The first round of the election is scheduled for Sunday April 23.  Officials results will be available on the website of the French Interior Ministry beginning at 8Pm local time ( 2:00 PM E.T). http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/


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Thursday, April 20, 2017

LePen and Menenchon raise Frexit danger that could push euro as low as $0.90.

The dollar is on the defensive against most other currencies except the yen at the same time yields are firming up a little. Yesterday morning (11:00ET) the 10-year is 2.224% at the WSJ and 2.228% at MarketWatch (below) from 2.20% at the close and 2.179% Wednesday morning. That’s progress, if fractional. But the dollar is not benefitting. Against the yen, the dollar is making a more noticeable gain that seems to come from squaring recently placed safe-haven yen buys. It’s not coming from a renewal of confidence in the US economy or institutions.


Ahead of the French first-round election on Sunday, French yields are lower and the CAC is higher. Go figure. This looks like whistling past the graveyard.

Oil prices are moderating but not crashing as OPEC meets to talk about extending the output cut by 3 months to one year. Hmm, the first output cut deal was for 6 months, so the new timeframe is a bit puzzling and maybe worrisome. The WSJ reports Saudi “energy minister Khalid al-Falih hinted at the extensive behind the scenes negotiations among big oil producers ahead of next month’s meetings. He said a preliminary agreement to extend the cuts had been reached, but it still needed final sign off from some OPEC members. ‘Consensus is building, but it is not done yet.”


• In Japan, the Match trade surplus was ¥614.7 billion, more than forecast. Exports rose 12% y/y, especially exports to Asia (16.3%), while imports were up 15.8%, a surprise and implying the economy is in better shape than we thought (this always happens in Q1, though).

• In the eurozone, Feb construction output rose a lovely 6.9% m/m as the weather allowed (after - 2.4% in Jan). The y/y is 7.1%, the best in 5 years.

EURO/USD OUTLOOK:

The euro consolidated Wednesday yesterday on an inside day but is trucking along higher Thusrday morning to a high of 1.0778 so far. As a general rule, we expect a bigger pullback after a wild breakout. That the correction was minor and short-lived this time is quite worrisome. What does it mean? It can mean profit-taking is just being delayed (greed) and we will get a thundering pullback today or tomorrow, or it can mean the FX market is betting on the “good” outcome in the French election, i.e., Macron beating LePen and Melenchon by a wide margin. There will still be a run off but a big win would be decisive.


The Main Event

The U.S 10-year yield index closed at 2.202% from 2.179% the day before and is quoted a little higher this morning at 2.224%. This is attributed to a relaxation of geopolitical tension. The Bund yield is quoted at 0.233% this morning from 0.201% yesterday and 0.178% the day before,.


MARKET OUTLOOK:

Bond yields everywhere rose a little on relief from geopolitical tension, even French yields with the election looming on Sunday. Markets have been focused on recent displays of White House machismo, but an equally big disrupter could be the French election.

We are puzzled by the euro not losing it moxie ahead of the electoral run-off in France on Sunday. Econoday published the latest poll below. The expected outcome is Macron and LePen coming out on top for the second run-off in May, but if it’s Melenchon, head for the bunkers. The FT’s Chisholm, who knows a hawk from a handsaw, has a tidbit today saying the negative scenario (LePen and Menenchon) raise Frexit danger that could push euro as low as $0.90.



Nobody trusts polls after Brexit and Trump, but CNBC reports the Cevipof opinion poll published yesterday “showed frontrunners Macron and Le Pen both losing some momentum ahead of Sunday's first round, and conservative Francois Fillon and Melenchon still in contention for the second round run-off in May.”

Oddly, Bloomberg reports France auctioned €5.5 billion in 3-year and 5-year notes today and got a bidto-cover of 1.99, better than the 1.86 seen in the Jan auction. That was for a 5-year note. The FT reports “The premium for 10-year French bonds over Bunds has generally been around 40 basis points in recent years, so the current spread above 70 bps is certainly enticing for traders willing to bank on a middleground candidate eventually winning. We have already seen money flow into Europe, ignoring the sight of various volatility measures straining at the leash like a half-starved whippet.” The FT has 0.67 bp for the French-German spread at around 8 am today. Here’s the question—why is it not much, much wider?

We like to think the worst-case outcome in France will affect only European yields, but is that really so? Why would the US yield not also dip on a safe haven inflow if the outcome is LePen-Melanchon? We could get the strange outcome of falling US yields and a falling dollar/rising euro on an event that “should” clearly be euro-negative. We have seen stranger things. And let’s note that three of the four top candidates are pro-Putin. We have no idea what this may mean down the road.

We intend to get out of any positions by 1 pm on Friday. We seem to be the lone coward. The bond boys are having a ball betting on the French election.

Here’s another possible disruption this coming weekend: the World Bank/IMF meetings start today in Washington. Normally we get only a random nugget or two on the sidelines, but this time the central issue will be Trump’s America First stance, which runs directly counter to the very heart and soul of the IMF. Insiders say IMF chief Lagarde intends to “socialize” the Trumpies, especially about protectionism.

Commerce Secy Ross already pushed back with remarks last week that the US is the least protectionist of the majors. Trump pushed back on Monday with “Buy America” and “Hire America.” Former IMF official and generally smart guy Prasad told Reuters "The IMF has little leverage since its limited toolkit of analysis-based advice, persuasion, and peer pressure is unlikely to have much of an impact on this administration's policies." That’s the polite way of saying the Trumpies will be pig-headed.

Reuters reports Lagarde will interview TreasSec Mnuchin on stage during the meetings. Yikes! He did not acquit himself well in the FT interview on Monday. Mnuchin is no dummy but not accustomed to the public stage and visibly torn between the conventional sane and reasonable approach to international economics vs. the Trump version.

Having said that, the Trump version is not entirely wrong. In fact, it’s largely right. It’s perfectly true that other countries have manipulated currencies and do subsidize exports in various ways, some of them buried so deep in their infrastructure they are really very hard to find. A policy approach that favors US self-interests more openly is not a bad thing.

We just wish the Trumpies would do it in a brainier and classier way. The Treasury must have dozens of economists in the backroom with piles of data at hand. But it’s a hallmark of the Trump administration not to use hard facts and sound analysis, but rhetorical blasts instead. For example, VP Pence is in Indonesia today offending the government by complaining about its trade surplus with the US. Pence is not the brightest bulb in the chandelier and almost certainly not qualified to talk trade.

We are especially worried about Japan in this context. PM Abe was out front in starting trade talks with the US and has been leaning over backwards to get friendly treatment. It seems to have been working so far—we haven’t had any outbursts from the White House against Japan. China is in the same position, with Trump seemingly willing to swap help with N. Korea for less strident trade demands. But just wait.

If you are going to shoot first and ask questions afterwards, okay—but then you really do need to ask the questions. The US vs. the rest of the world is not going away when the Washington meetings end, either. We are in for a long slog. We may get a new version of presidential interference in the FX market next week when Trump meets Italian PM Gentiloni in Washington. Then he’s on to a NATO summit in Germany and thence to G7 in Sicily (May 26-27).

From Left Field: We are watching failed state Venezuela out of the corner of the eye. Things keep getting worse. Here’s a doozy for the trigger-happy Trump: the government seized a GM plant in Valencia and halted operation. It seized assets, which we guess means the factory itself and its bank accounts.

Politics: Bill O’Reilly bore the brunt of a renewed awareness of misogyny triggered by Trump. O’Reilly said he was railroaded by unfounded charges, which would come as a surprise to the fancy whiteshoe law firm that did the research and judged he had to be fired. Not just smoke, real fire. Even some sports heroes declined to attend a White House shindig lest their children see them hob-nobbing with the groper-in-chief. Civil liberties groups joined forces, too.

Now it remains for the libs to do it right this time and not become so insufferably holier-than-thou that even dyed-in-the-wool feminists and libertarians are repelled.

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Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Skepticism about US reflation and geopolitical fears spread to Japan,10-year JGB yield fell below zero for the first time


The dollar index tumbled Tuesday alongside the 10-year yield, which closed at the lowest since before the November election. The 2-year, supposedly most attuned to Fed policy changes, fell to 1.16% . The CME FedWatch tool now shows the probability of a hike in June at 42.4% from 46.6% the day before (and over 50% last week). The market is giving up on dreams of Trumpian fiscal stimulus as well as worried about the absence of a coherent foreign policy. Trump lying about sending an aircraft carrier to Korea worsened geopolitical jitters.




The other factor behind the dollar collapse is a rise in other currencies for their own reasons, chiefly sterling. PM May’s announcement of a snap election drove the pound upward from 1.2513 to 1.2906 over nine hours, although it’s consolidating below yesterday’s highs ever since. May is assumed to gain some 20 additional seats from the hapless Labourites and strengthen her hand in Brexit talks. Pushing out the 2020 election also removes an obstacle to negotiating strength. Ironically, the strong pound was bad for the FTSE 100, which is now down year-to-date. SEE CHART BELOW:




Skepticism about US reflation and geopolitical fears spread to Japan, where the 10-year JGB yield fell below zero for the first time since mid-November. The FT reports it was as low as -0.004% overnight, from 0.116% in early Feb. 










• The Atlanta Fed kept its Q1 forecast for GDP at the same 0.5% as last time, based on residential investment growth (a little higher) and inventories (a little lower).

• In the eurozone, the CPI final is the same 1.5% y/y as the flash. The Feb trade balance moved back into surplus (€17.8 billion) from a deficit in Jan (€600 million).


The EURO/USD OUTLOOK: 


The euro made a breakout move to the upside and closed above the 20-day moving average. Anyone doubting the efficacy of the linear regression channel should look at how useful it has been since the beginning of the year. WE can more clearly see two higher lows and two higher highs. If we get a third higher high, it will have to be above 1.0906 from March 27 and likely to 1.0977, the 62% retracement of the previous big move down that started last August (not visible off the left-hand side of the chart).



Something worth repeating: Yesterday SocGen’s Juckes said “The medium-term case for the euro to usurp the dollar as strongest of the major currencies grows steadily even if European political uncertainty holds it back in the short term.’’ Juckes is always to be heeded.

The Main Event The Reuters 10-year yield index closed at 2.179% from 2.252% the day before and below the 200-day moving average. The yield is now the lowest since Nov 10, before the election. Today we see 2/210%, but a die has been cast, maybe.

The Bund yield is quoted at 0.201% from 0.178% yesterday morning.


MARKET OUTLOOK:


We get the EIA crude oil stocks report today plus the Beige Book. These are secondary considerations given more of the Monday FT interview with TreasSec Mnuchin, the looming showdown with N. Korea and the (arguably) deteriorating US economy.

TreasSec Mnuchin told the FT on Monday that Trump was not trying to talk the dollar down, merely commenting that in the short-term the dollar was getting too strong, while in the long run, the US favors a strong dollar. Today the FT has more of its interview with Mnuchin, this time saying more vehemently that Trump was “absolutely not, absolutely not” trying to talk the dollar down.

Mnuchin’s effort at damage control is undone, we think, by the addition of the stance that it’s not manipulation if it’s in the US favor. He said "To manipulate a currency you have to be doing it to disadvantage the United States. To the extent you manipulate a currency that advantages the United States, it’s not currency manipulation." Mnuchin explains that this is how the law defines “manipulation” for the Treasury’s twice-yearly report on currency manipulation. But he didn’t have to point it out. We have been following the report for years and never knew about that definition. It takes a Trumpian worldview to emphasize it.

It’s a very bad definition, basically saying the ends justify the means. The G7 and G20 position is that any and all currency manipulation is bad and to be avoided whatever the outcome. Presumably Mnuchin has one eye on the World Bank/IMF meetings, along with G20, in Washington this week. But the high mucky-mucks of these organizations will not be shy about criticizing the US for stupidity and incoherence.

 The Mnuchin interview is very long. He does not acquit himself well. If Rubin got an A+, Mnuchin gets a D. He couldn’t remember some acronyms, says Greece is a European issue (avoiding the question of whether the IMF should return to the table), and several other sub-par answers to softball questions.

Trump and Mnuchin are dollar-negatives. Another dollar negative is a possible showdown between the US and Pyongyang as early as April, 25, the date of the founding of the Korean military. A military display is expected. The question is whether N. Korea tries to lob another missile into the Sea of Japan and whether the US tries to shoot it down. We don’t know whether the US was able to sabotage the last missile electronically. We wonder at what point Japan gets tired of strange and unconvincing statements from the US and starts taking some initiatives….

But the bigger determinant of the dollar’s downfall is the state of the economy and how the bond market views it

The CME puts the probability of a June hike at 42.4% from 60%+ in March. Bloomberg has 44%, but never mind—it back under 50%. Bloomberg also notes that the 2-year breakeven spread (TIPS vs. the 2-year notional yield) has fallen from the high this year at 2.19% to 1.37% this week, meaning traders do not believe the Fed will get its 2% inflation target. Moreover, the spread of the 2-year over Fed funds is down to 16 bp from 44 at the start of the year.



One bond manager told Bloomberg we will get another hike this year, but not more. “The strength of the U.S. economy has been exaggerated, especially after Trump’s election. Things may get worse.” And bond market prices are behaving weirdly. See the chart from Deutsche Bank, courtesy of the Daily Shot. We have no idea how to interpret this thing.






Inflation data and inflation expectations are behind a lot of the bond market action. While inflation may be falling back in the US, it’s falling back in the eurozone, too. In fact, the only place where inflation seems truly likely is the UK, and even there the new sterling rally should put a dent in imported inflation.













Finally, what about the French election that is supposed to drive the euro down on unbearable uncertainty? The Daily Shot offers this cute graphic from Monday (next page). France is still at risk. Maybe by tomorrow or Friday fear will get a grip again. But in FX, we are not getting the usual pullback after a giant move. A little consolidation, but where’s the big profit-taking? The dog that isn’t barking is as big a worry as any of the data.

Politics: Trump tried one of his bluffs, saying an aircraft carrier was headed for N. Korea—only to have the Navy say it wasn’t. The story ran around the internet all day and hit the front page of the major newspapers this morning, not because Trump lied—we’re used to that--but because he lied to an ally in a crisis. The implications are vast. A S. Korean presidential candidate said his country can never trust Trump again unless he admits he made a mistake. Trump was ridiculed in China, which already calls him a paper tiger. A state-approved blogger wrote that bluster without a real resolve to use military force will keep “Fatty the Third” away from the table permanently. A Japanese professor military strategy said disinformation is for wartime. To use it in peacetime just harms US credibility.


Trump fans think it’s exciting to make up tactics on the fly, but anyone with a grain of common sense knows that it’s stupid and dangerous. And what’s with the Navy calling the commander in chief either a liar or mistaken? We still don’t know whether the Army used the MOAB bomb without presidential approval. A military coup in the US is unthinkable but a mutiny is not. Some general or admiral is all too likely to refuse a really bad Trump order.




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