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Tuesday, May 30, 2017

INVESTOR RESEARCH: Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE)


Description

Grand Canyon Education, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides postsecondary education services in the United States and Canada. It offers approximately 200 graduate and undergraduate degree programs and certificates across nine colleges online and on ground through campus in Phoenix, Arizona; leased facilities; and facilities owned by third party employers. As of December 31, 2016, it had 81,900 students enrolled in its programs. The company was founded in 1949 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.


Disclaimer: We're not suggesting buying this featured company specifically - only suggesting it for further investor research. 

LOPE$77.3200-0.5700% -0.7300Grand Canyon Educati
Sector : Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry : Schools

  • Signal
  • Short Term Trend
  • Long Term Trend
  • HOLD
  • UP
  • UP
Day:-0.73%Wk:1.05%Mo:2.87%Yrly:86.13%YTD:32.28%
Strength Rank:94DIV%:0.00PE:22.79EPS:1.12ROE:21.53%
Ann EPS Gro:3.39%Last QTR EPS Gro:10.89%Sales Gro QTR:1.45%
Beta:1.36Mkt Cap:3BVolume:0.20MBook Value:17.26Ex:NASDAQ

Long Term Trend

The long term trend of Grand Canyon Educati is UP indicating that LOPE has experienced an UP trend for at least the past 180 trading days. Long term trends are key to understanding the starting point to the path of least resistance of a stocks price trend. The expected future trend bias is always strongest with the current trend.

Short Term Trend

The short term trend of Grand Canyon Educati is UPLOPE has been undergoing a short term UP UP over the past 7-10 days.

Signal

The current signal for Grand Canyon Educati is HOLD indicating that the stock could be Pausing in its trend. The current price trend is not Extreme. Stocks in extreme levels of price trend should be allowed to move out of the extreme range before a buy or sell decision should be made. As is the case for most trending momentum style stocks, much of the reason price action is not often known until well into the price trend. But earnings growth and management efficiency are key components to a foundation to a sustainable uptrend. We will focus on fundamental indications that can build a case for reasons why the stock should continue its current trend.

Strength Rank

Rank is the rank of the stock vs. its peers. For example a Rank of 98 means the stock is out performing 98% of its peers over a 12 month period. A rank of 2 means the stock is outperforming 2% of its peers, in other words, 98% of its peers are out performing it. 98 is good, 2 is not so good. The current quarter is 40% of the weighting, so current performance is more significant to the rank.

The current rank for Grand Canyon Educati is 94, this means that LOPE is out performing 94% of its peers. Stocks that have a rank of 80 or better, with support of all other analyses shown here, tend to advance the trend.

The 90 day trend of Rank



ROE - Return on equity is a measure of financial efficiency, gauging how much profit a company is able to generate from the company financial net worth (that is, assets minus liabilities). Look for an annual return on equity of at least 20%. That is the level that set apart the winning stocks from the ordinary. That doesn't always mean that a company with smaller ROE is a poor investment. Some big winners have of course been shy of 20% return on equity when they started their major up trends. When ROE is strong, it gives investors an indication that the company is better poised to continue a solid earnings performance. A high ROE is only part of the fundamentals a solid company should have. Superb earnings and sales growth, superior profit margins and big operating cash flow are other key elements investors must seek.

The Current ROE for Grand Canyon Educati is 21.53%, indicating LOPE is currently functioning with High financial efficiency.

The 12 month chart trend of ROE




Annual EPS Growth - Companies with annual earnings growth of more than 20% are more likely to become leaders in up trending markets. While 20% Annual EPS growth is the minimum you should look for, don't be afraid to seek even better results. Studies have shown that the greatest winners in the past 30 years had an average 30% annual EPS growth rate when they started their strong up trends. You also can look for three straight years of rising EPS growth, with an average of at least 25%. These performance results often imply that a company is growing fast even if the general economy is slowing down or even in recession.

The current Annual EPS Growth for Grand Canyon Educati is 3.39% which is less than the 30% average found is strong trending, fundamentally sound companies.

The 12 month chart trend of Annual EPS Growth



Quarterly EPS Growth - Outstanding earnings growth in the most recent quarters can be the single most important trait that identifies winners before they start their major price advances. Generally, the bigger the earnings growth, the better. Specifically, look for a company's earnings per share up at least 25-30% vs. the year-ago level in the most recent quarter or two. Gains of 50%, 100% or more are typical of strong market leaders even before they make their huge price moves. There's really nothing magic about this connection. Successful companies generate the strongest profit gains, regardless of the economic cycle. Even during periods when corporate profits are weak in general, you still find standouts that achieve massive earnings growth.

The current Quarterly EPS Growth for Grand Canyon Educati is 10.89% which is less than the 25% average found is strong trending stocks even during or before huge price moves.

The 12 month chart trend of Quarterly EPS Growth



Quarterly Sales growth - A company's annual and quarterly rate of increase in revenues (sales). A measure of growth and success as long as it is accompanied by an equally strong rate of increase in earnings per share. You want to see both in a potential investment. A company's quarterly EPS gain should be supported by an increase in revenue (sales) of at least 25% or at least by an acceleration in sales growth in the past few quarters. You also should watch out for earnings growth that comes amid falling sales. Companies with declining revenue often boost their EPS results through layoffs or other cost cuts, especially in an uncertain economic environment. But this isn't a sustainable approach, and it's definitely not as desirable as profit gains that come from higher revenue. Recent quarterly sales results are more critical when it comes to researching stocks.

The current Quarterly Sales Growth for Grand Canyon Educati is 1.45% which is less than the 25% average found is strong trending stocks.

The 12 month chart trend of Quarterly Sales Growth


Dividend Yield

Dividend yield is the annual dividend income per share received from a company divided by its current share price. Normally investors would like to see a dividend yield between 2% and 20% for a dividend paying company. The dividend yield is an important factor to consider when investing in dividend paying stocks. Dividend yield is a financial ratio that reflects the % of profits a company makes of the dividend payments over the course of a year. For example if a stock pays an annual dividend of $2 and is trading at $50 a share, it would have a dividend yield of 4%.

The current Dividend Yield for Grand Canyon Educati is 0.00.


Stocks Historical Trading Characteristics.

           Trade Stats for   LOPE

Number of Trades3Trade Expectancy$2131.76
Total Profit Amount$7446.83Trade Expectancy%21.32%
Total Loss Amount$169.21Annual Trade Expectancy$6395.28
Net Profit/Loss$7277.62Annual Trade Expectancy%63.95%
Avg Profit on Winners$3723.42Largest Profit$4030.19
Avg Loss on Losers$169.21Largest Loss$169.21
Total Net % Gain or Loss72.78%Avg Days in Trade69
Avg % Gain on Winners32.82%Avg Days between Trades50
Avg % Loss on Losers1.69%Longest nbr of consecutive Winners2
Reward to Risk Ratio19.40Longest nbr of consecutive Losers1
Number of Trades Per Year3Largest Drawdown-1.69%
Number of Winners2Avg Drawdown-1.69%
Number of Losers1
Winning Percentage%66.67%



Backtesting a stock can provide investors with critical statistical data. These results give you an informed perspective on how a stock trades within your chosen buying and selling method of analysis. The definition of trade expectancy is defined as: trade expectancy = (probability of win * average win) - (probability of loss * average loss). If the calculation returns a positive number, a trader should make money over time.

The average percentage gained on positive, money making trades was 32.82%. While the average percent loss on money losing trades was 1.69%.

Trade expectancy includes both winners and losers. Trade expectancy is displayed as a percentage. This backtest displays the dollar value, percentage, annual trade expectancy, and annual percent. Annual expectancy is the trade expectancy percentage multiplied by the number of trades per year.

The Trade expectancy % for LOPE over the past year is 21.32%. The number of trades generated per year was 3 giving an Annual Trade Expectancy of 63.95%

The average days in a trade is 69 and the average days between trades is 50.

With any method of analysis that uses past performance, it can be said that past performance is not indication of future performance. What is does provide is a probabilistic look at a stock's price activity characteristics over time.



The historical Profit and loss curve of a $10,000 shows




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Disclaimers 

Investing is Inherently Risky There are risks inherent in all investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain persons. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange, rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities. You may lose all of your money trading and investing. Do NOT enter any trade without fully understanding the worst-case scenarios of that trade. And do NOT trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance of an investment is not necessarily indicative of its future results. No assurance can be given that any implied recommendation will be profitable or will not be subject to losses. Hypothetical Results Are Reported Results and examples used in the Company’s advertisements, books, videos, websites, and other media—including on the Site and the Network—are, in some cases, based on hypothetical (simulated) trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, hypothetical results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the hypothetical results may have under-or-over compensation for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Hypothetical trading programs generally are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. Hypothetical results also do not account for commissions or slippage. The Company’s simulations assume purchase and sale prices believed to be attainable. Yet traders are going to be getting into trades at different times and using various exit approaches, which may result in different pricing and outcomes. You may or may not receive the best available price on the purchase or the sale of a position in actual trading. Information provided by the Company is not investment advice. The Company is not a registered investment adviser, stock broker, or brokerage. You agree that the Company does not represent, warrant, or take responsibility that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Examples published by the Company are selected for illustrative purposes only. They are not typical and do not represent the typical results of all stocks within the Company’s software or its individual scans and searches. No independent party has audited any hypothetical performance contained at this Web site, nor has any independent party undertaken to confirm that they reflect the trading method under the assumptions or conditions specified.
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