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Thursday, July 20, 2017

Top 3 Option Trading Signals With The Big News From A Healthcare Company & What It Means For Your Portfolio -Inogen Inc. (INGN)


Market Outlook: The euro rally will probably continue and reach beyond the recent high at 1.1583, but first it has to pull back when Draghi disappoints. The only question is how far. The channel bottom lies at 1.1462 and we don’t expect to see a level much lower than that. But the previous intermediate low was 1,1369 and a test of that level is always a possibility. 


Reuters reports that dollar shorts reduced positions ahead of the ECB and Draghi, which is the better way to look at it. On the 15-minute chart, the euro stopped falling when the ECB statement of no change was released. But that doesn’t mean the slide will not resume, depending on what Draghi says. Draghi is sensitive to the effect on the euro of his comments. We can probably assume he knows perfectly well that if he admits the council talked about tapering, the euro will rally. At the same time, Draghi would never, ever lie about it. We like the comment in the FT from a fund manager: “The euro is on track to reach $1.25 by the end of the year, but it won’t be a straight line and today could be a good reason to take some profits on recent moves against the dollar,” says Paul Brain, head of fixed income at Newton Investment Management. “For currencies the interest rate story is most important, as changing interest rate differentials drive currencies. If the ECB’s tone switches from reducing stimulus spending to discount rate increases then the euro could accelerate. But that’s probably for the ECB and Fed September meetings.” 

Stocks got off to a positive start today with the Nasdaq and S&P 500  touching all-time highs, but we have seen a bit of a pullback that has put the major indices slightly lower at midday. Earnings season is in full force, and the numbers we have seen have generally been solid.strong housing starts and building permits numbers provided some good news for economy watchers who were concerned that we were seeing too many pockets of weakness, so the hope among bulls is that this trend continues in the weeks ahead.

We did get some additional "good news" regarding the economy today in the form of the index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for June, which came in at 0.6% versus May's 0.2%. The reason this is great news for the economy is that the LEI is a forward-looking indicator, unlike most economic reports that say what happened one or two months in the past. Bulls were pleased to see the LEI jump as much as it did, so this could provide some "upside fuel" for the stock market as we head toward August and the rest of the summer.

Stay tuned!

       

HIGH PROFIT TRADING SIGNALS



SELL GBP/USD- recommended entry @ 12981( DAY TRADING)) STOP- 13026, TAKE PROFIT- 12933
BUY EURO/USD- recommended entry @ 11576 ( DAY TRADING)) STOP- 11542, TAKE PROFIT- 11616
BUY AUD/USD -recommended entry @ 7942 ( DAY TRADING)) STOP- 7913, TAKE PROFIT- 7972
BUY USD/JPY- recommended entry @ 11226 ( DAY TRADING)) STOP- 11192, TAKE PROFIT- 11265
SELL USD/CHF- recommended entry @ 9560 ( DAY TRADING)) STOP- 9585, TAKE PROFIT- 9531
SELL USD/CAD- recommended entry @ 12597 ( DAY TRADING)) STOP- 12630, TAKE PROFIT- 12560

CME/Globex FX FUTURES--SEP 2017 Contract 
BUY AUD @ 7950, STOP- 7915, TAKE PROFIT- 7992
BUY MEX PESO @ 5611, STOP- 5568, TAKE PROFIT- 5655
SELL GBP @ 13016, STOP- 13070, TAKE PROFIT- 12953




Stocks Trading Idea For Today ($INGN)



Inogen Inc. (INGN)

July 21, 2017

COMPANY DESCRIPTION

Inogen Inc. (INGN) develops, manufactures and markets portable oxygen concentrators (POC). Patients who suffer from chronic respiratory conditions and require long-term oxygen therapy use POCs. POCs purify the air around the patients and remove nitrogen and other unnecessary substances and provide oxygen.


INVESTMENT THESIS

Long-term Oxygen Therapy increases survival and improves the quality of life for patients suffering from hypoxemia (insufficient oxygen in the blood) with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for these patients in the U.S. is between $3 billion to $4 billion. INGN estimates that there are 2.5-3.0 million patients in the U.S. and more than 4.5 million patients worldwide who use oxygen therapy. The U.S. market for oxygen therapy is expected to grow between 7% and 10% from 2017 to 2021. We think U.S. and international markets will provide Inogen significant growth.

POCs solve many of the problems associated with conventional oxygen therapy that use stationary oxygen concentrators systems for use in the home and oxygen tanks or cylinders for mobile use. POCs provide unlimited oxygen anywhere, improving patient independence and mobility. POCs are less expensive than traditional therapies as these treatments do not require infrastructure and require less maintenance. We believe the benefits and lower cost of POCs will enable Inogen to gain share much faster than the competition.

The company’s direct-to-customer business has helped it become a leader in the oxygen therapy market. INGN efforts to market its direct-to-customer sales have led to enhanced brand recognition. An increase in physician referrals is also expected to boost revenue over the next several years.

We expect underpenetrated international markets and positive reimbursement trends in France, Germany, and the U.K. to provide significant international growth. In particular, Germany is believed to be the second largest market in Europe for medical oxygen systems. Increasing demand in the Asia Pacific region also bodes well for INGN.


RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

On May 9, Inogen posted first-quarter earnings of $0.27 per share, well above the year ago and consensus figure of $0.12. The positive earnings surprise reflected 22% higher revenue of $53 million, well above the consensus estimate just below $50 million.

Product sales rose 40% to $46 million, while rental revenue dropped 36% to $7 million. Business to business(B2B) sales in the U.S. soared 84% to more than $17 million, primarily reflecting purchases by traditional home medical equipment providers and ongoing strength in private label sales. Internationally, business-to-business sales grew 15% to more than $11.

Direct-to-consumer product sales in the U.S. rose 28% to nearly $17 million. However, direct-to-consumer rental revenue decreased 36% to $6.5 million.
In the first quarter, INGN reported a gross margin of 49%, down from 49.5% in the prior year period. Sales gross margins increased from 49.7% to 52.3%. The improvement reflected lower cost of goods sold, according to management. Rental gross margin fell from 49% in 1Q16 to 26% in 1Q17. The decline reflected lower net revenue per patient. Adjusted EBITDA rose 34% to $11 million year over year. 

Earnings & Growth Analysis

Inogen maintained its 2017 adjusted EBITDA guidance. However, INGN increased its 2017 adjusted net-income forecast. It projects revenue in the range of $233-$239 million, above the previous forecast of $230-$236 million. This represent annual growth of 15%-18%. Inogen expects rental revenue to decrease in 2017 due to lower average rental revenue per patient.

Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $46 million and $50 million, an increase of 15% year over year. INGN expects adjusted net income to be between $22 million and $24 million, up from a prior $21-23 million. For 2017, to reflect the first-quarter earnings beat, we are setting our adjusted earnings estimate at $1.20. In 2018, we see earnings growing to $1.40 per share.


RISKS

The shares typically trade at multiples above 70 and disappointing results or other bad news could cause the stock to plummet. A significant portion of Inogen’s revenue comes from Medicare reimbursements, which could be cut. The company also derives a significant portion of its revenue from international markets and foreign exchange is likely to be a headwind.


VALUATION

Our $115 target price is based on a multiple of 95.8 times our 2017 earnings estimate. We believe that Inogen’s rapid growth and prospects for positive earnings surprises warrant a lofty valuation. At its current price, our target price, if achieved offers investors the prospect of a 20% return.
Inogen Inc. (INGN)
Current Price: $96.18
Target Price: $115
Current Valuation: 80.1 times FY17 EPS
Target Valuation: 95.8 times FY17 EPS



OPTION TRADING TRADING SIGNALS


Naked Puts on Wynn Resorts (WYNN)


12 Trades That Can TRIPLE in 12 Months
It has been a lousy few years for casino stocks with a presence in Macau. Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN) has really been in trouble over there, along with everyone else, as the Chinese government continues its crackdown on corrupt rich people.
The Chinese chose to do this because, with 2 billion people to mollify, it cannot appear as coddling the corrupt and the rich. Thus, with fewer rich people eager to flash their cash, the casinos got gobsmacked. WYNN stock is really a trading stock to me, and not a long-term investment. Still, with the stock well off its all time highs at $133.17, there is plenty of upside (and limited downside) if you buy in here.
The premiums are fantastic right now, and I might think about selling the 25 Aug $133 naked puts for $6, if you can get it. That’s a generous return of 4.5%, or 45% annualized.
There is downside to WYNN, and sure, it could crater back down to $60. However, I think the worst of the crackdown is over. WYNN doesn’t always say when it reports earnings, but it is usually the first week of the second month of the quarter.

Naked Puts on Priceline (PCLN)


PCLN stock is trading at $1,875, after backing out net cash, or 22 times next year’s earnings. Its earnings per share are growing at a rate of 17.6% annualized, so I consider this to be a reasonably priced growth stock. So getting PCLN stock put to you at a lower price would be wonderful.Priceline Group Inc 
(NASDAQ:PCLN) has historically been a stock where I aim to make very large premiums. You can make several thousand dollars provided you have the margin available to sell a naked put against PCLN stock.
You can sell the weekly 25 Aug $1,800 naked puts for $10.50, and collect $1,050 in premiums for income. It sounds too good to be true, but you pick up a thousand bucks, and if the stock is put to you, you get it at a nominal price of $1,790. Backing out net cash, you get it at $1,665, which is about 19.5 times FY18 earnings. PCLN reports earnings on Aug. 8.


Naked Puts on Southwest Airlines (LUV)


As an airline stock, it also means that LUV stock has the right degree of volatility to sell naked puts against it to make some additional income. If LUV stock is put to you, you get a premier airline at a discounted price from its close of $61.41 on Wednesday.Southwest Airlines Co 
(NYSE:LUV) remains one of the top two airlines, as far as financial health is concerned. LUV has always been the best-managed airline with the best financials, best cash flow and least amount of debt.
Earnings will be reported next week, on July 27. With the stock at $61.41 now, the play here is probably the 25 Aug $61 naked puts for $1.80. This works out to a higher-than-average return of about 3%. For the 36-day holding period, that bring you to a 30% annualized return.
LUV stock is also barely 5% off its all-time high. It remains a strong stock and may even be worth buying at these prices.


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