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Wednesday, March 29, 2017


The euro hit a high of 1.0906 on Monday, the highest since Nov 11, but is now retreating for the second day. It’s no accident that the pullback started on a Tuesday. A weirdly high proportion of pullbacks occur on the Tuesday after a big move the previous Thursday/Friday. We have been calling it the “Tuesday pullback” almost for about 10 years in my experience in trading.

Now others are picking up the observation; BBH’s Chandler calls it Turnaround Tuesday and said the dollar was leading rates. But beware—it’s not a reversal or “turnaround.” It’s a pullback, meaning temporary, until we get confirmation. If we draw a new set of Fib lines off the March 3 low at 1.0493 (second chart), the pullback could easily reach the 50% retracement level at 1.0700 without necessarily indicating the larger euro upmove is over. Having said that, the rout has already broken red support. In our experience, the euro can unsteadily around near the support line for a day or two before preceeding downward. Or the move could fizzle.

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