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Wednesday, May 10, 2017

INVESTOR RESEARCH: Western Refining, Inc. (WNR)


Western Refining, Inc. operates as an independent crude oil refiner and marketer of refined products. It operates through three segments: Refining, WNRL, and Retail. The Refining segment owns and operates three refineries that process crude oil and other feedstocks primarily into gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and asphalt; and sells refined products in the Mid-Atlantic region and Mexico. It markets refined products to wholesale distributors and retail chains. The WNRL segment owns and operates terminal, storage, transportation, and wholesale assets, including a fleet of crude oil, asphalt, refined product, and lubricant delivery trucks. It also distributes commercial wholesale petroleum products primarily in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Texas. This segment serves retail fuel distributors; and the mining, construction, utility, manufacturing, transportation, aviation, and agricultural industries. The Retail segment operates retail convenience stores that sell gasoline, diesel fuel, and convenience store merchandise; and unmanned commercial fleet fueling locations located in the Southwest and Upper Great Plains regions. As of December 31, 2016, this segment operated 259 retail stores under the Giant, Western, Western Express, Howdy's, and Mustang brand names in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas; and 51 cardlocks located in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas. It also operates 170 retail convenience stores under the SuperAmerica brand, as well as supports the operations of 115 franchised retail convenience stores primarily in Minnesota and Wisconsin. In addition, this segment owns and operates SuperMom’s Bakery that prepares and distributes baked goods and other prepared items. Western Refining, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in El Paso, Texas.

Disclaimer: We're not suggesting buying this featured company specifically - only suggesting it for further investor research. 

WNR$35.9400-0.1500% -0.4200Western Refining
Sector : Oils-EnergyIndustry : Oil - Refining and Marketing

  • Signal
  • Short Term Trend
  • Long Term Trend
  • BUY
  • UP
  • UP
Strength Rank:90DIV%:4.28PE:27.3EPS:0.19ROE:5.82%
Ann EPS Gro:1.3%Last QTR EPS Gro:371.43%Sales Gro QTR:10.08%
Beta:1.25Mkt Cap:3BVolume:0.94MBook Value:20.77Ex:NYSE

Long Term Trend

The long term trend of Western Refining is UP indicating that WNR has experienced an UP trend for at least the past 180 trading days. Long term trends are key to understanding the starting point to the path of least resistance of a stocks price trend. The expected future trend bias is always strongest with the current trend.

Short Term Trend

The short term trend of Western Refining is UPWNR has been undergoing a short term UP UP over the past 7-10 days.


The current signal for Western Refining is BUY indicating that the stock could be Advancing in its trend. The current price trend is Extreme. Stocks in extreme levels of price trend should be allowed to move out of the extreme range before a buy or sell decision should be made. As is the case for most trending momentum style stocks, much of the reason price action is not often known until well into the price trend. But earnings growth and management efficiency are key components to a foundation to a sustainable uptrend. We will focus on fundamental indications that can build a case for reasons why the stock should continue its current trend.

Strength Rank

Rank is the rank of the stock vs. its peers. For example a Rank of 98 means the stock is out performing 98% of its peers over a 12 month period. A rank of 2 means the stock is outperforming 2% of its peers, in other words, 98% of its peers are out performing it. 98 is good, 2 is not so good. The current quarter is 40% of the weighting, so current performance is more significant to the rank.

The current rank for Western Refining is 90, this means that WNR is out performing 90% of its peers. Stocks that have a rank of 80 or better, with support of all other analyses shown here, tend to advance the trend.

The 90 day trend of Rank
ROE - Return on equity is a measure of financial efficiency, gauging how much profit a company is able to generate from the company financial net worth (that is, assets minus liabilities). Look for an annual return on equity of at least 20%. That is the level that set apart the winning stocks from the ordinary. That doesn't always mean that a company with smaller ROE is a poor investment. Some big winners have of course been shy of 20% return on equity when they started their major up trends. When ROE is strong, it gives investors an indication that the company is better poised to continue a solid earnings performance. A high ROE is only part of the fundamentals a solid company should have. Superb earnings and sales growth, superior profit margins and big operating cash flow are other key elements investors must seek.

The Current ROE for Western Refining is 5.82%, indicating WNR is currently functioning with Average financial efficiency.

The 12 month chart trend of ROE
Annual EPS Growth - Companies with annual earnings growth of more than 20% are more likely to become leaders in up trending markets. While 20% Annual EPS growth is the minimum you should look for, don't be afraid to seek even better results. Studies have shown that the greatest winners in the past 30 years had an average 30% annual EPS growth rate when they started their strong up trends. You also can look for three straight years of rising EPS growth, with an average of at least 25%. These performance results often imply that a company is growing fast even if the general economy is slowing down or even in recession.

The current Annual EPS Growth for Western Refining is 1.3% which is less than the 30% average found is strong trending, fundamentally sound companies.

The 12 month chart trend of Annual EPS Growth
Quarterly EPS Growth - Outstanding earnings growth in the most recent quarters can be the single most important trait that identifies winners before they start their major price advances. Generally, the bigger the earnings growth, the better. Specifically, look for a company's earnings per share up at least 25-30% vs. the year-ago level in the most recent quarter or two. Gains of 50%, 100% or more are typical of strong market leaders even before they make their huge price moves. There's really nothing magic about this connection. Successful companies generate the strongest profit gains, regardless of the economic cycle. Even during periods when corporate profits are weak in general, you still find standouts that achieve massive earnings growth.

The current Quarterly EPS Growth for Western Refining is 371.43% which is greater than the 25% average found is strong trending stocks even during or before huge price moves.

The 12 month chart trend of Quarterly EPS Growth
Quarterly Sales growth - A company's annual and quarterly rate of increase in revenues (sales). A measure of growth and success as long as it is accompanied by an equally strong rate of increase in earnings per share. You want to see both in a potential investment. A company's quarterly EPS gain should be supported by an increase in revenue (sales) of at least 25% or at least by an acceleration in sales growth in the past few quarters. You also should watch out for earnings growth that comes amid falling sales. Companies with declining revenue often boost their EPS results through layoffs or other cost cuts, especially in an uncertain economic environment. But this isn't a sustainable approach, and it's definitely not as desirable as profit gains that come from higher revenue. Recent quarterly sales results are more critical when it comes to researching stocks.

The current Quarterly Sales Growth for Western Refining is 10.08% which is less than the 25% average found is strong trending stocks.

The 12 month chart trend of Quarterly Sales Growth

Dividend Yield

Dividend yield is the annual dividend income per share received from a company divided by its current share price. Normally investors would like to see a dividend yield between 2% and 20% for a dividend paying company. The dividend yield is an important factor to consider when investing in dividend paying stocks. Dividend yield is a financial ratio that reflects the % of profits a company makes of the dividend payments over the course of a year. For example if a stock pays an annual dividend of $2 and is trading at $50 a share, it would have a dividend yield of 4%.

The current Dividend Yield for Western Refining is 4.28%.

Stocks Historical Trading Characteristics.

           Trade Stats for   WNR

Number of Trades4Trade Expectancy$1058.03
Total Profit Amount$5501.41Trade Expectancy%10.58%
Total Loss Amount$995.58Annual Trade Expectancy$4232.13
Net Profit/Loss$4505.82Annual Trade Expectancy%42.32%
Avg Profit on Winners$1833.80Largest Profit$2943.53
Avg Loss on Losers$995.58Largest Loss$995.58
Total Net % Gain or Loss45.06%Avg Days in Trade60
Avg % Gain on Winners16.27%Avg Days between Trades24
Avg % Loss on Losers6.50%Longest nbr of consecutive Winners2
Reward to Risk Ratio2.50Longest nbr of consecutive Losers1
Number of Trades Per Year4Largest Drawdown-6.5%
Number of Winners3Avg Drawdown-6.5%
Number of Losers1
Winning Percentage%75.00%

Backtesting a stock can provide investors with critical statistical data. These results give you an informed perspective on how a stock trades within your chosen buying and selling method of analysis. The definition of trade expectancy is defined as: trade expectancy = (probability of win * average win) - (probability of loss * average loss). If the calculation returns a positive number, a trader should make money over time.

The average percentage gained on positive, money making trades was 16.27%. While the average percent loss on money losing trades was 6.50%.

Trade expectancy includes both winners and losers. Trade expectancy is displayed as a percentage. This backtest displays the dollar value, percentage, annual trade expectancy, and annual percent. Annual expectancy is the trade expectancy percentage multiplied by the number of trades per year.

The Trade expectancy % for WNR over the past year is 10.58%. The number of trades generated per year was 4 giving an Annual Trade Expectancy of 42.32%

The average days in a trade is 60 and the average days between trades is 24.

With any method of analysis that uses past performance, it can be said that past performance is not indication of future performance. What is does provide is a probabilistic look at a stock's price activity characteristics over time.

The historical Profit and loss curve of a $10,000 shows

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