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Tuesday, July 18, 2017


The dollar index fell Friday on bad inflation and retail sales data, and fell again last evening around 8 pm when the news emerged that an additional two senators would not support the U.S health care bill, depriving the leader of enough votes and killing it again.

This was always the likely outcome but the timing was a surprise. The WSJ has a story on the Commitment of Traders report for the dollar index showing it had already fallen to a 3-year low (see the chart in the Market Outlook below). We can’t recall the last time a failed piece of US legislation moved the FX market like this—it’s a rare occurrence and probably reveals that traders were just itching for an excuse.

The narrative has it that the health care bill is a prerequisite for the budget and tax reform plan. The Trump initiatives that are supposed to deliver 4% growth are therefore stalled, hence the dollar effect. Analysts are throwing in reduced odds of the September rate hike, too, providing a double whammy,

In Australia, the RBA minutes were interpreted as hawkish, pushing the AUD up over 0.7900 for the first time since May 2015, helped along by the falling dollar. Evidence that the driver was the US healthcare bill comes from New Zealand, where the NZD fell on inflation falling short of forecasts (1.7% in Q2 after 2.2% in Q1 and vs. 1.9% expected). But the NZD turned around smartly on the US news. The NZD first fell from 0.7331 to 0.7261 on the domestic story, but reversed to 0.7362 in a sharp V on the US news. See the mini-chart. It’s really quite remarkable.

In the UK, June CPI was flat and the year-over-year rate decelerated to 2.6% from 2.9%. Regular core inflation also slowed to 2.4% from 2.6^ and the new CPIH (H refers to housing) version fell to 2.6% from 2.7%. We haven’t seen a fall in inflation since last fall, which accounts for the previously growing sense that the BoE could or should be raising rates. We never bought it but the expectation was a factor holding up a currency that should be falling because of Brexit. Sterling was rising against the dollar along with all the other currencies (to a high of 1.3126 overnight), but crashed on release of the inflation data to 1.3008 by 7:30 am ET. Again, a rare sharp reversal.

Yesterday the euro surpassed the previous high of 1.1490 from last week, but by only one point. At around 8 pm last evening, two senators announced they would not vote for the health care bill and the euro soared to 1.1532 in the next hour alone and thence to 1.1564 by 7 am.

The Main Event The Reuters 10-year yield index closed at 2.309% and is quoted at 2.301% from the Friday close as 2.319%. It’s now back under the 200-day moving average.

The Bund yield is quoted at 0.563% from 0.574% yesterday and 0.582% Friday morning.

Market Outlook: The dollar was showing some signs of a small rebound after the Friday rout in the usual Tuesday pullback, but the death of the health care bill put the kybosh on that. Restoring the dollar downtrend was not a gentle process—it was sharp and fast. The speed and ferocity are going to go a long way to converting diehard holdouts who want to think that the Fed will act in Sept and the outright yield differential continues to favor the dollar.

On Thursday the pro-dollar crowd is probably going to get a small dose of favorable news when Draghi holds the press conference. We guess Draghi will not change a syllable of his judgment last time—that inflation is not on a sustainably rising path. The taper gang will be disappointed. But then they can turn to the Draghi speech at Jackson Hole in August. Golly, maybe he will give some clues then. This is FX trading on wishful thinking. But to be fair to traders, recent eurozone data does point to conditions that permit tapering to be entertained, if not executed just yet.

The euro-favorable aspects of tapering are well-known by now. The dollar-negative aspects of Trump’s incompetence are only just starting to be admitted. The WSJ story on the falling dollar index notes that bearish sentiment is already the most in three years. Bears are the strongest since June 2014. See the chart. “The failure suggested Mr. Trump’s other legislative efforts, such as overhauling the tax code and implementing fiscal stimulus, might also encounter obstacles.”

We don’t necessarily agree about the legislative agenda—see “Politics” below—but the fact remains that the Trump Phenomenon overall was always going to be dollar-disastrous. Picking fights with allies and neighbors over trade, insulting Mexicans, pulling out of the Paris Climate Accord, making kissy-kissy with the Saudis and Russians, nepotism, misogyny—take your pick. And that’s not even considering

North Korea. Commentators were blunt and brutal about LePen and quick to attribute the euro’s occasional softness to political risk. Now the US and the dollar are the ones with high and rising political risk.

The next specific Trump act will be to distract and deflect attention from the heathcare failure. Alas, it’s probably another assault on NAFTA. Yesterday at the launch of “Made in America Week” (despite nearly all of Trump products being manufactured outside America), Trump said reducing US trade deficits with Canada and Mexico are the top priority in renegotiating NAFTA. He sent a list of bullet-point priorities to Congress—outsourcing again. The target is the deficit with Canada (($11 B) and Mexico (($64.3 B in 2016). Oh, yes, Trump includes a ban on those countries “manipulating their currencies to gain competitive advantage.”

Plenty of Congressmen already oppose tinkering with NAFTA out of self-interest, including both Dems and Plubs. We won’t see large crowds of public protests, but changing NAFTA is not going to go well for Trump.

Bottom line, as the latest Reuters poll shows, the rising dollar has hit the wall. “While Reuters foreign exchange polls this year have predicted the dollar to strengthen slightly, the latest poll of around 70 strategists taken over the past week showed the outlook has broadly dimmed. “A majority of strategists, 43 of 71, who answered an extra question said their dollar outlook was less bullish now compared with the beginning of the year. Seventeen said they were more bearish, only five said they were more bullish, and the remaining six strategists said they were less bearish.” Morgan Stanley admits the euro is already at its year-end forecast of 1.1500. JP Morgan says "There is further scope for recent EUR trends to extend, but this is contingent on how ongoing ECB rhetoric unfolds from here." Well, no kidding.

Politics: Trump did not take the actions that a normal president takes to get his agenda rolling and get it passed by Congress. By outsourcing the health care bill to political leaders and then failing to visit key voter districts and rally the public for the bill, Trump let down the party. The party let down its constituents by declining to hold public hearings and gather evidence and testimony from experts. The whole process was mismanaged from start to finish. What turned the four senators was public protests against the bill, despite hardly anyone knowing what was in it and in the absence of the usual CBO analysis showing costs and benefits.

The public now believes health care is a right, whatever ideologues think. In a way, the death of the health care bill is the death of the Tea Party, which wanted to slash the size and reach of the federal government, something a lot more people would have supported if the Tea Party had not also embraced religion-contaminated social values. We sometimes despair of the US voter as willfully ignorant and unbelievably stupid, but then it pulls a rabbit out of the hat and kills a very bad bill.

A great many Congressmen and voters wanted to repeal Obamacare as a fatal punch in the face to Obama personally. Obama achieved a lot more than a healthcare bill—including killing Osama bin Laden—but the Affordable Healthcare act became a symbol of his entire presidency. Nobody knows how much racism plays a part in the repeal initiative. It’s funny and sad that when pollsters ask whether voters like Obamacare, the majority say no. But when asked if they want to keep their current healthcare without naming Obama, the majority say yes. Now that’s a toxic political environment and it was invented entirely out of whole cloth by Republican Congressional representatives. But after the House voted more than 50 times to repeal the act and now the ultimate failure in the Senate reveals a terrible disconnect between the people and the legislators.

Such a disconnect is not all that abnormal or rare. We elect these guys to do a job but don’t want to have to watch them do it—until they screw up. We do not buy the thesis that all the rest of the Trump agenda, if you can call it that, is going to get the same degree of interest among the voters. Analysts bemoan that this failure shows the whole Trump plan is at risk. No, it doesn’t. For one thing, there is no plan. Trump makes it up as he goes along. Congress is the one that will have to devise a plan. For another, health care is a special case. You don’t see hundreds of thousands of protesters when Congress passes bills favoring tax breaks for rich people. We won’t see them out protesting in force when we get to the infrastructure bill, either—unless there are a lot of eminent domain issues.

Bottom line, the Trump Reflation Trade in not beheaded. It was always wishful thinking in the first place rather than a true plan, and you simply cannot kill wishes. Like Arnold, he will be baaaack.


BUY GBP/USD- recommended entry @ 13045 ( DAY TRADING)) STOP- 12996, TAKE PROFIT- 13106
BUY EURO/USD- recommended entry @ 11508 ( DAY TRADING)) STOP- 11476, TAKE PROFIT- 11548
SELL AUD/USD -recommended entry @ 7870 ( DAY TRADING)) STOP- 7841, TAKE PROFIT- 7909
SELL USD/JPY- recommended entry @ 11251 ( DAY TRADING)) STOP- 11291, TAKE PROFIT- 11203
SELL USD/CHF- recommended entry @ 9597 ( DAY TRADING)) STOP- 9626, TAKE PROFIT- 9565
SELL USD/CAD- recommended entry @ 12620 ( DAY TRADING)) STOP- 12654, TAKE PROFIT- 12580

CME/Globex FX FUTURES--SEP 2017 Contract 
BUY AUD @ 7862, STOP- 7834, TAKE PROFIT- 7892
BUY MEX PESO @ 5653, STOP- 5626, TAKE PROFIT- 5687
BUY GBP @ 13075, STOP- 13022, TAKE PROFIT- 13142

Stocks Trading Idea For Today ($MASI)

Disclaimer: We're not suggesting buying this featured company specifically - only suggesting it for further investor research. 

MASI$95.1400-0.4600% -0.4800Masimo Corporation
Sector : MedicalIndustry : Medical Instruments

  • Signal
  • Short Term Trend
  • Long Term Trend
  • BUY
  • UP
  • UP
Strength Rank:93DIV%:0.00PE:46.23EPS:0.57ROE:24.19%
Ann EPS Gro:2.04%Last QTR EPS Gro:11.76%Sales Gro QTR:1.69%
Beta:0.8Mkt Cap:4BVolume:0.63MBook Value:11.28Ex:NASDAQ

Long Term Trend

The long term trend of Masimo Corporation is UP indicating that MASI has experienced an UPtrend for at least the past 180 trading days. Long term trends are key to understanding the starting point to the path of least resistance of a stocks price trend. The expected future trend bias is always strongest with the current trend.

Short Term Trend

The short term trend of Masimo Corporation is UPMASI has been undergoing a short term UPUP over the past 7-10 days.


The current signal for Masimo Corporation is BUY indicating that the stock could be Advancingin its trend. The current price trend is Extreme. Stocks in extreme levels of price trend should be allowed to move out of the extreme range before a buy or sell decision should be made. As is the case for most trending momentum style stocks, much of the reason
price action is not often known until well into the price trend. But earnings growth and management efficiency are key components to a foundation to a sustainable uptrend. We will focus on fundamental indications that can build a case for reasons why the stock should continue its current trend.

Strength Rank

Rank is the rank of the stock vs. its peers. For example a Rank of 98 means the stock is out performing 98% of its peers over a 12 month period. A rank of 2 means the stock is outperforming 2% of its peers, in other words, 98% of its peers are out performing it. 98 is good, 2 is not so good. The current quarter is 40% of the weighting, so current performance is more significant to the rank.

The current rank for Masimo Corporation is 93, this means that MASI is out performing 93%of its peers. Stocks that have a rank of 80 or better, with support of all other analyses shown here, tend to advance the trend.

The 90 day trend of Rank

ROE - Return on equity is a measure of financial efficiency, gauging how much profit a company is able to generate from the company&#39s financial net worth (that is, assets minus liabilities). Look for an annual return on equity of at least 20%. That is the level that set apart the winning stocks from the ordinary. That doesn't always mean that a company with smaller ROE is a poor investment. Some big winners have of course been shy of 20% return on equity when they started their major up trends. When ROE is strong, it gives investors an indication that the company is better poised to continue a solid earnings performance. A high ROE is only part of the fundamentals a solid company should have. Superb earnings and sales growth, superior profit margins and big operating cash flow are other key elements investors must seek.

The Current ROE for Masimo Corporation is 24.19%, indicating MASI is currently functioning with High financial efficiency.

The 12 month chart trend of ROE

Annual EPS Growth - Companies with annual earnings growth of more than 20% are more likely to become leaders in up trending markets. While 20% Annual EPS growth is the minimum you should look for, don't be afraid to seek even better results. Studies have shown that the greatest winners in the past 30 years had an average 30% annual EPS growth rate when they started their strong up trends. You also can look for three straight years of rising EPS growth, with an average of at least 25%. These performance results often imply that a company is growing fast even if the general economy is slowing down or even in recession.

The current Annual EPS Growth for Masimo Corporation is 2.04% which is less than the 30% average found is strong trending, fundamentally sound companies.

The 12 month chart trend of Annual EPS Growth

Quarterly EPS Growth - Outstanding earnings growth in the most recent quarters can be the single most important trait that identifies winners before they start their major price advances. Generally, the bigger the earnings growth, the better. Specifically, look for a company's earnings per share up at least 25-30% vs. the year-ago level in the most recent quarter or two. Gains of 50%, 100% or more are typical of strong market leaders even before they make their huge price moves. There's really nothing magic about this connection. Successful companies generate the strongest profit gains, regardless of the economic cycle. Even during periods when corporate profits are weak in general, you still find standouts that achieve massive earnings growth.

The current Quarterly EPS Growth for Masimo Corporation is 11.76% which is less than the 25% average found is strong trending stocks even during or before huge price moves.

The 12 month chart trend of Quarterly EPS Growth

Quarterly Sales growth - A company's annual and quarterly rate of increase in revenues (sales). A measure of growth and success as long as it is accompanied by an equally strong rate of increase in earnings per share. You want to see both in a potential investment. A company's quarterly EPS gain should be supported by an increase in revenue (sales) of at least 25% or at least by an acceleration in sales growth in the past few quarters. You also should watch out for earnings growth that comes amid falling sales. Companies with declining revenue often boost their EPS results through layoffs or other cost cuts, especially in an uncertain economic environment. But this isn't a sustainable approach, and it's definitely not as desirable as profit gains that come from higher revenue. Recent quarterly sales results are more critical when it comes to researching stocks.

The current Quarterly Sales Growth for Masimo Corporation is 1.69% which is less than the 25% average found is strong trending stocks.

The 12 month chart trend of Quarterly Sales Growth

Dividend Yield

Dividend yield is the annual dividend income per share received from a company divided by its current share price. Normally investors would like to see a dividend yield between 2% and 20% for a dividend paying company. The dividend yield is an important factor to consider when investing in dividend paying stocks. Dividend yield is a financial ratio that reflects the % of profits a company makes of the dividend payments over the course of a year. For example if a stock pays an annual dividend of $2 and is trading at $50 a share, it would have a dividend yield of 4%.

The current Dividend Yield for Masimo Corporation is 0.00.

Stocks Historical Trading Characteristics.

           Trade Stats for   MASI

Number of Trades3Trade Expectancy$2146.64
Total Profit Amount$7264.58Trade Expectancy%21.47%
Total Loss Amount$0.00Annual Trade Expectancy$6439.93
Net Profit/Loss$7264.58Annual Trade Expectancy%64.4%
Avg Profit on Winners$2421.53Largest Profit$5436.98
Avg Loss on Losers$0.00Largest Loss$0.00
Total Net % Gain or Loss72.65%Avg Days in Trade131
Avg % Gain on Winners21.47%Avg Days between Trades26
Avg % Loss on Losers0.00%Longest nbr of consecutive Winners3
Reward to Risk Ratio0.00Longest nbr of consecutive Losers0
Number of Trades Per Year3Largest Drawdown0.00
Number of Winners3Avg Drawdown0.00
Number of Losers0
Winning Percentage%100.00%

Backtesting a stock can provide investors with critical statistical data. These results give you an informed perspective on how a stock trades within your chosen buying and selling method of analysis. The definition of trade expectancy is defined as: trade expectancy = (probability of win * average win) - (probability of loss * average loss). If the calculation returns a positive number, a trader should make money over time.

The average percentage gained on positive, money making trades was 21.47%. While the average percent loss on money losing trades was 0.00%.

Trade expectancy includes both winners and losers. Trade expectancy is displayed as a percentage. This backtest displays the dollar value, percentage, annual trade expectancy, and annual percent. Annual expectancy is the trade expectancy percentage multiplied by the number of trades per year.

The Trade expectancy % for MASI over the past year is 21.47%. The number of trades generated per year was 3 giving an Annual Trade Expectancy of 64.4%

The average days in a trade is 131 and the average days between trades is 26.

With any method of analysis that uses past performance, it can be said that past performance is not indication of future performance. What is does provide is a probabilistic look at a stock's price activity characteristics over time.

The historical Profit and loss curve of a $10,000 shows

Stocks Trading Idea For Today ($HELE)

Helen of Troy Ltd. (HELE): ABOVE $95.85, with a $104 first target, a $120 second target, and an $87 stop loss. Confirmation Volume Area= 150K, Risk Rating= 5, Industry= Housewares & Accessories
HELE TRADING TIP: Watch this VOLATILE formation as it sets up for another stage higher, while the market finishes mixed. Any further accumulation may break this stock higher, helping it take a run into ‘uncharted territory’. When reviewing new trading ideas for purchase, pay the price that coincides with your desired exit strategy; being patient by waiting for desired prices may drastically reduce trade risk. NOTE: when building a portfolio of Trade Picks, consider diversifying by “risk rating”; the action may drastically reduce trade risk.

Helen of Troy Ltd. (HELE) rose $1.05, to $95.40 on good volume today! HELE develops, imports, markets, and distributes a portfolio of consumer products worldwide. HELE operates in four segments: Housewares, Health & Home, Nutritional Supplements, and Beauty. The Housewares segment offers food and beverage preparation tools and gadgets, storage containers, and organization products; household cleaning products, and shower organization and bathroom accessories; feeding and drinking products, child seating products, cleaning tools, and nursery accessories; and insulated water bottles, jugs, drinkware, travel mugs, and food containers. The Health & Home segment provides thermometers, blood pressure monitors, and humidifiers; faucet mount water filtration systems and pitcher based water filtration systems; and air purifiers, heaters, fans, and dehumidifiers. The Nutritional Supplements segment offers heart, digestive, joint, blood sugar, sleep, brain, and vision support products; and skin care, safe beauty, and pain relief support products. The Beauty segment provides hair, facial, and skin care appliances, as well as grooming brushes, tools, and decorative hair accessories; and liquid hair styling, treatment and conditioning products, shampoos, skin care products, fragrances, deodorants, and antiperspirants. HELE sells its products through mass merchandisers, drugstore chains, warehouse clubs, home improvement stores, catalogs, grocery and specialty stores, beauty supply and e-commerce retailers, wholesalers, and various types of distributors, as well as directly to consumers under the OXO, OXO Tot, Hydro Flask, Vicks, Braun, Honeywell, PUR, Febreze, Revlon, Pro Beauty Tools, Sure, Pert, Infusium23, Brut, Ammens, Hot Tools, Bed Head, Dr. Sinatra, Dr. David Williams, and Dr. Whitaker brands.

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 Investing is Inherently Risky There are risks inherent in all investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain persons. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange, rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities. You may lose all of your money trading and investing. Do NOT enter any trade without fully understanding the worst-case scenarios of that trade. And do NOT trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance of an investment is not necessarily indicative of its future results. No assurance can be given that any implied recommendation will be profitable or will not be subject to losses. Hypothetical Results Are Reported Results and examples used in the Company’s advertisements, books, videos, websites, and other media—including on the Site and the Network—are, in some cases, based on hypothetical (simulated) trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, hypothetical results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the hypothetical results may have under-or-over compensation for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Hypothetical trading programs generally are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. Hypothetical results also do not account for commissions or slippage. The Company’s simulations assume purchase and sale prices believed to be attainable. Yet traders are going to be getting into trades at different times and using various exit approaches, which may result in different pricing and outcomes. You may or may not receive the best available price on the purchase or the sale of a position in actual trading. Information provided by the Company is not investment advice. The Company is not a registered investment adviser, stock broker, or brokerage. You agree that the Company does not represent, warrant, or take responsibility that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Examples published by the Company are selected for illustrative purposes only. They are not typical and do not represent the typical results of all stocks within the Company’s software or its individual scans and searches. No independent party has audited any hypothetical performance contained at this Web site, nor has any independent party undertaken to confirm that they reflect the trading method under the assumptions or conditions specified.


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